Lucky to be third: Opta reveals Arsenal's shocking 'true' position

Arsenal's impressive start to the 2024-25 Premier League season may be deceptive, according to Opta's expected points model.

Despite sitting third, just one point off the top, the data suggests the Gunners should be eighth.


Games against Brighton and Manchester City, where Arsenal were reduced to 10 men, saw their opponents dominate shots.

Against Aston Villa, the Gunners also benefited from the opposing team's inability to convert chances.

Mikel Arteta's tactical acumen has helped Arsenal grind out results, but the underlying numbers indicate the team's position may not be sustainable.

In contrast, Liverpool and Manchester City occupy the top two spots in both the actual and expected points tables. Chelsea's fourth-place position also understates their performance, with the Blues' expected points suggesting they could be as high as second.